Research · Version 1 · August 2026
Will the Louisiana International Terminal hurt St. Bernard home values?
Probably not much, and likely not at all for most of the parish over ten years. Homes closest to the terminal carry real near-term risk, but the evidence from comparable ports doesn’t support a collapse.
By Mike Fernandez, Founder & Broker, Arpent Realty. A scenario-based comparative market analysis, not a peer-reviewed study.
What question does the study answer?
Not “will prices go up?” Too many forces move home prices for that. The study asks how much more or less a home is worth because the terminal exists, compared with the same future without it. A home can rise in price and still see a negative port effect if it would have risen more otherwise.
It splits the parish into two areas. Zone 1 is the 855 homes within roughly a mile of the terminal in Violet. Zone 2 is the rest of residential St. Bernard. Each is assessed at five and ten years.
What evidence does it use?
- The Port-commissioned property value study, which estimates a direct noise-related effect averaging about −3.5% during construction and −2.7% in operation for Zone 1
- FHFA House Price Index data for neighborhoods near five comparable ports and industrial projects
- MLS data from lower Plaquemines Parish
- Interviews with brokers near the ports in Savannah, Charleston, Wilmington and Plaquemines
What did it find?
Probability that the terminal itself makes homes worth less, about the same, or more, compared with no terminal.
Homes nearest the terminal
A 42% chance of some negative effect over five years, falling to 17% at ten years. Only a 5% chance of a severe drop of more than 10%.
The rest of the parish
An 88% chance of a neutral or positive effect at five years. At ten years, positive is the most likely outcome at 60%.
What happened near other ports?
None of the comparables showed a broad home-value decline of more than 10% near the project. Some near-port neighborhoods grew more slowly than the rest of their metro, which is the more realistic risk.
- Plaquemines LNG: parish home prices kept rising through construction, though a construction-worker rental boom later softened.
- Garden City, Savannah: the nearest tract roughly doubled from 2018 to 2025, about in line with the metro.
- Leatherman Terminal, Charleston: no negative break during construction of a new terminal.
- Wilmington, NC: the port-adjacent ZIP rose about 122% from 2017 to 2025, despite documented noise complaints.
What would change the outlook?
The study is meant to be updated as evidence comes in. The things worth watching:
- How Zone 1 sales and rents perform against the rest of the parish
- Whether freight routing keeps trucks off residential streets
- How many port jobs go to people who actually live in St. Bernard
- Whether supporting businesses set up in the parish
- Whether new housing is built for permanent demand, not a temporary construction peak
Limitations: the probabilities are structured judgment, not output from a statistical model. Every comparable differs from LIT in some way, and job projections are forecasts.
Own property near the terminal?
We track sales and rents in Violet and across the parish. If you’re deciding whether to buy, hold or sell near the LIT site, we’ll walk you through what the numbers say for your street.